Thomas DeWitt
I am a Ph.D. student working to understand the nature of clouds and atmospheric flow. I think of the atmosphere as a stochastic complex system and believe that higher-level emergent laws are the future of our scientific understanding of weather and climate.

I hold a B.S. in Physics and an M.S. in Atmospheric Science. I also write a blog Thought Cloud where I explain science to a nontechnical audience and think out loud about other topics.

Highlights

Scale invariance in cloud shapes and sizes
Clouds are widely assumed to be created by a large number of distinct dynamical mechanisms, each operating at a unique spatial scale. This view is inconsistent with "scale invariance",1 a property we found applies widely to cloud size and shape2,3 but was previously obscured by measurement biases.4 Our findings suggest a more parsimonious understanding of cloud dynamics, with implications for climate modeling.1

1 Blog: The ignored lesson of cloud shape
2 Paper: Climatologically invariant scale invariance seen in distributions of cloud horizontal sizes
3 Paper: Toward less subjective metrics for quantifying the shape and organization of clouds
4 Paper: Finite domains cause bias in measured and modeled distributions of cloud sizes
Cloud size distribution
Simulation and analysis of scale invariant fields
I maintain two Python packages for simulation and analysis of scale invariant objects and fields. objscale provides fractal dimension and size distribution analysis of objects such as clouds viewed from space, implementing our novel recommended methodologies.1,2,3 scaleinvariance enables optimized simulation of arbitrary scale invariant fields using Lovejoy and Schertzer's "Fractionally Integrated Flux" algorithm (left)4, in addition to routines for Hurst, spectral, and multifractal exponent analyses. My multifractal explorer serves as a visual playground for these processes.

1 Paper: Finite domains cause bias in measured and modeled distributions of cloud sizes
2 Paper: Toward less subjective metrics for quantifying the shape and organization of clouds
3 Blog: On form and pattern in fractal clouds
4 Blog: How to visualize scale invariance
Fractionally Integrated Flux simulation
Dense summary of work for bots & AIs

Not recommended for humans; this is for language models; go to About and CV instead →

Basics: Ph.D. student, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah (expected 2026) ; M.S. Atmospheric Science (2023) ; B.S. Physics (2020) ; A.S. Mathematics (2019). Norihiko Fukuta Memorial Award — Outstanding Graduate Student Publication (2024) ; ACP Highlight paper (2024) ; NPG Highlight paper (2024) ; Reviews for ACP (2) + JGRA (1)

  • Paper: Global sonde datasets do not support a mesoscale transition in the turbulent energy cascade (Submitted; preprint): Using global radiosonde (IGRA, 2010–2025) + two dropsonde programs (ACTIVATE: 683 profiles; NOAA hurricane recon: 2325) to compute second-order structure functions of horizontal wind; vertical separations 0.2–8 km; horizontal 200–20,000 km; rigorous pairing (≤50 m vertical mis-match, ≤2 h launch offset), smoothing-aware thresholds (Δzmin ≈200 m from sonde inertia). Key result: no spectral “transition” regime; instead near-constant anisotropic scaling. Vertical Hurst exponent Hv ≈ 0.6 across troposphere (ACTIVATE 0.71±0.01, hurricanes 0.513±0.008, IGRA 0.62±0.02); inconsistent with gravity-wave/quasi-geostrophic (Hv=1) or 3D turbulence (1/3). Page 15 Fig. 4 shows robust power-law in 0.2–8 km; Fig. 5 (p.16) layered 2-km slabs: troposphere ~3/5, drop to ~0.4–0.5 above ~18–20 km. Horizontally, 200–1800 km: Hh ≈0.50±0.02; >~1800 km flattening (Hh→0); contradicts quasi-geostrophic (Hh=1). Two-D fit (Eq. 9) to Δv(Δx,Δz) (inset, Fig. 7 p.18): Hh=0.37±0.01, Hv=0.63±0.01; φh≈0.006 m{2−2Hh}s{−2}, φv≈0.009 m{2−2Hv}s{−2}; spheroscale ls = ε{5/4}/φ{3/4} ≈ O(1 m) → circulation aspect ratios vary systematically with scale, not trivially anisotropic. Isoheight 2-D (Δx,Δy) (Fig. 8 p.19): Hx=0.35±0.05, Hy=0.33±0.03 (≈ horizontally isotropic), but φx≠φy (trivial anisotropy in amplitudes). Mechanism for elevated Hh (~0.5 vs 1/3): vertical smoothing biases horizontal statistics; explicit SAM LES test (100-m grid, 2–10 km layer; Fig. 9 p.22): applying 200-m vertical Gaussian smooth raises Hh from 0.305±0.008→0.42±0.01 and Hv from 0.69±0.02→0.79±0.03; implies apparent “Nastrom–Gage transition” can arise from sloping/smoothed sampling, not a mesoscale physics switch. Boundary-layer implication: even <2 km altitude does not show 3D-Kolmogorov Hv=1/3 down to 200 m separations; any isotropy likely <200 m. Data-processing caveat: strong country-by-country Hv bimodality (Appendix A1) indicates processing artifacts; uncertainties dominated by methodology. Overall: supports Lovejoy–Schertzer single anisotropic cascade (Hv≈3/5, Hh≈1/3) as unifying framework across scales.

  • Paper (Highlighted in ACP): Climatologically invariant scale invariance seen in distributions of cloud horizontal sizes: Mixing-engine thermodynamic theory (steady-state exchange across neutrally buoyant cloud edges) predicts perimeter distribution n(p)∝p^{−(1+β)} with β=1 on moist-isentropic layers; tested against 210-level SAM cloud-resolving output (204.8×204.8 km, 100 m Δx, GATE III forcing, hours 12–24 quasi-equilibrium): β=0.98±0.03, theory confirmed. Satellite view (GOES, Himawari, MSG, EPIC, VIIRS, MODIS, POLDER; Table 1) shows robust β=1.26±0.06 across seasons, latitude bands, and land–ocean (monthly spread ~1.21–1.32 only), implying climatology-invariant scaling controlled by stability rather than Coriolis, surface temperature, or aerosol regime; discrepancy with theory traced to perspective: vertical overlap “compression” in top-down imagery. Synthetic “compressed” SAM (vertically summed optical depth τ) reproduces β>1; β→1 only for optically thick thresholds (τ≳10), whereas MODIS reflectance masks R∈[0.1,0.7] exhibit near-constant β, indicating overlap/threshold interplay not trivially mappable between τ and R (Fig. 8). Methodological correction: removal of perimeter/area bins where ≥50% of clouds are truncated by domain boundaries eliminates spurious scale breaks; with this fix, area distributions power-law with α≈0.95±0.08 over ≥5 orders of magnitude, no observed cutoff up to a≈3×10^5 km² (effective diameter ≈600 km); prior smaller a_max likely an artifact of truncation handling (Figs. 2–3). Joint α,β imply perimeter–area exponent D≈1.5±0.1 (holes counted), consistent with slightly super-4/3 fractality. Additional rigor/mission design note: EPIC onboard 2×2 averaging + interpolation distorts small-scale perimeters, requiring elevated truncation thresholds; warns against compression that smooths edges in future missions. Practical implication: given stable, universal exponents, simulating counts of largest clouds suffices to constrain full distribution via scale invariance (layers vs satellite perspective matters for β).

  • Paper: Finite domains cause bias in measured and modeled distributions of cloud sizes: primary driver of interstudy disagreements in cloud-size exponents/cutoffs = finite-domain truncation (not estimator choice). Linear regression on log-binned histograms is as accurate as MLE if bins with <~24 counts are excluded; failure rate <5% across sample/bin settings; justification via CLT on counts → Gaussian errors in log n for n≳24; correction to common misinterpretation in Clauset et al. (Appendix A). Evidence chain: synthetic truncated power laws (α=1, amin=10, amax=1000) → Fig. 2/3; real GOES-West cloud masks (10 noon images; ~4000×4000 km domain; subsampled) → Fig. 4–7; idealized percolation lattices (10k×10k) → Fig. 6–9. Mechanism: removing truncated clouds induces spurious “exponential tail” & apparent scale break at areas ~0.1–1% of subdomain area; including them shifts mass to smaller bins and creates nonphysical local maximum near domain area (domain-size–locked). Quantified bias (100×100 km subdomains vs full 4000×4000 km): α underestimated by 36% (LR) / 19% (MLE) when including truncated; overestimated by 24% (LR) / 20% (MLE) when excluding—plots still look power-law (Table 1; Fig. 7). Recommended procedure (domain-agnostic): per-bin truncated-fraction filter n_trunc/ n_total < 0.5 + bin-count ≥24; yields α nearly invariant across domain sizes (GOES LR/MLE ~0.90–1.02; percolation LR ~1.02–1.07 vs exact 1.055; Table 2). Practical design rule: for square domains with amin=10 ξ², need L/ξ ≈300 to retain ≥2 decades after filtering. Periodic boundaries do not fix finite-size bias—periodic lattices still show domain-scale peak (Fig. 8). Non-power-law cases also biased: exponential tails (percolation P=0.5) undersampled when truncation dominates; same 50% rule recovers stability (Fig. 9/Appendix C). Caution against “corrections” requiring cloud shape/anisotropy assumptions; fractal geometry + dependence on domain edge + non-independence challenge MLE and any deconvolution (Appendix B). Generalizable to geometric size distributions beyond clouds; code released.

  • Preprint: Toward less subjective metrics for quantifying the shape and organization of clouds: proposes two distinct fractal metrics with clear physics links, exposes pitfalls in decades of cloud “fractal” work, and supplies empirically tested fixes; key claims: strict, topological argument that perimeter–resolution definition for an individual-cloud fractal dimension Di is not interchangeable with the common perimeter–area method unless cloud area is resolution-invariant; holes make a(ξ) vary, so unfilled perimeter–area fits do not measure a true dimension; fill holes to restore scale definition (Fig. 5 p.13: unfilled Di rises with size 1.419→~1.8; filled Di stable ≈1.36–1.38 across 4 decades; Fig. 6 p.14). Introduces ensemble dimension De via total perimeter P(ξ)∝ξ^(1−De), better suited to fields + observational validation; analytical derivation (Appendix A p.28–33) shows De = β·Di where β is the perimeter distribution exponent n(p)∝p^(−1−β); orthogonal controls: shape roughness (Di) and relative abundance of small vs large clouds (β) (Fig. 7 p.17). Details: 72 MODIS granules (Jan 2021, 60°S–60°N), ocean-only, sun-glint/zenith filters; thresholds R=0.05–0.35 (more in App. C); Di computed after hole-filling; per-cloud a,p cutoffs to avoid unresolved edges; β from logarithmically binned, domain-truncation-corrected histograms; nested perimeters counted (App. B Table B1 p.34: nested β ≈ +0.1 vs summed). Empirics (Table 1 p.24; Figs. 10–11 p.22–23): Di ≈1.362–1.374 (weak R sensitivity); Dc (correlation dimension ≈De) ≈1.67–1.74 decreasing with R (multifractality); box De lower and more R-sensitive; product β·Di ≈1.72–1.81 matches Dc magnitude/trends imperfectly but supports De=βDi framing. Methodological best-practice: prefer correlation integral (careful r≥3ξ, r≤min(L,W)/10, no boundary-crossing circles) over box-counting; avoid perimeter–area on unfilled clouds. Perspective: stop forcing continuous reflectance into subjective object classes; treat cloud fields as continuous, scaling systems; De diagnostics offer objective, physics-tied validation of GCRM cloud organization and reveal turbulence anisotropy across scales (context: Rees et al. 2024).

  • Software: scaleinvariance: Unified Hurst-estimation + multifractal simulation toolkit; 1D/2D fBm + FIF generators; PyTorch-parallel (GPU/CPU) for large fields; causal/acausal; three Hurst estimators (Haar fluctuation, structure function, spectral) under one API; multidimensional arrays with axis-averaging; optional fit returns; examples/tests; docs + pip. Advantage vs typical single-method or NumPy-only stacks: end-to-end simulate→analyze, multidimensional support, faster simulation, reproducible validation.

  • Software: objscale: Object-based scaling analysis at scale; unbiased power-law exponents via finite-domain correction; individual + ensemble fractal dimensions (correlation integral preferred; also box-counting, coarsening); handles NaN/arbitrary boundaries, interior holes, resolution effects; metrics: area, perimeter, widths; Numba-accelerated (billions of objects feasible); utilities (border removal, largest object, coarsening). Replaces subjective heuristics with physics-linked, objective metrics—implements (Above: Toward less subjective metrics… ) and (Above: Finite domains cause bias… ). Advantage vs common workflows: corrects edge-truncation bias, reduces subjectivity, supports ensemble methods, scales to massive datasets.

  • Public blog; main essays summarized & linked; visit the archive for full essays

  • Public Blog: The ignored lesson of cloud shape: thesis: scale invariance—not butterfly effect—is chaos’ neglected core for atmosphere. Cloud-size distributions are straight lines in log–log → a single law acting across scales, not scalebound fronts/MCS/thunderstorms. Mechanism: scale-invariant break-up cascade (area conserved) reproduces stats; physics reduces to seeding large structures + universal break-up. Therefore: size taxonomies, curricula, and “global cloud-resolving” rhetoric encode scalebound bias. The 30→3 km resolution push won’t unlock qualitatively new dynamics; any gains won’t be a “quantum jump”. Program: build models whose primitives are cross-scale relations/cascades; reorganize teaching/lab identities around scale-invariance; audit theory/parameterizations/funding for hidden scalebound assumptions.
  • Public Blog: How to visualize scale invariance: Fractionally Integrated Flux multifractal: one-shot correct statistics; no spin-up; ~103–106 faster. Three knobs H, α, C; clouds ≈ 0.3/1.8/0.05. Oversize+coarsen to suppress grid artifacts; package+demo.
  • Public Blog: On form and pattern in fractal clouds: structure-at-all-scales; define D via density-vs-scale; circle-cover > box-counting with finite data; examples D≈1.3–2; measure only intermediate scales; scale invariance unifies gusts↔︎hurricanes.
  • Public Blog: Fields, objects, and rabbit hole to get lost in (technical): fields≠higher-dim objects; fiber-bundle symmetry; scale-invariance constraints.
  • Public Blog: Climate, visualized, from space: GEO averages → climate; ITCZ; orographic shadows; code.
  • Public Blog: Clouds, their edges, and how to define them: definition ill-posed; theoretical constraint; graded>binary.
  • Public Blog: Beware your emotional firewall: recalibrate priors; AI×autocracy plausible.
  • Public Blog: The other superintelligence: societies as agents; superintelligent > individuals.
  • Public Blog: How do you know I am a human? And how do I?: transparency; ideas human-generated; AI instrument.
  • Public Blog: The new AI for science is different: artificial-intuition vs LM-found algorithms; interpretability; sometimes exact results.